What in dynamical systems is called a bifurcation, in a laboratory setting (or in nature) is perceived as a qualitative change in the long-term observed dynamic behavior, sometimes dramatic. Pinpointing the location of these phenomena in state parameter space, and deciphering the nature of the underlying transitions, has been the focus of significant scientific effort for decades, e.g. in Biology [21, 17, 26, 54, 62, 32, 15]) or Chemistry [1, 48, 18, 76, 11, 46, 37]. In fact, accurate location of bifurcation points remains an active field of research computationally and experimentally [3]. When a reliable mathematical model is available, one can locate bifurcations either analytically (if the model is simple enough) or through scientific computing, e.g. in the context of numerical continuation. Such approaches reduce to the numerical solution of a system of (deterministic) equations that characterize bifurcations of a certain type [19, 13, 41].

Data for which a set of objects is described by multiple distinct feature sets (called views) is known as multi-view data. When missing values occur in multi-view data, all features in a view are likely to be missing simultaneously. This leads to very large quantities of missing data which, especially when combined with high-dimensionality, makes the application of conditional imputation methods computationally infeasible. We introduce a new imputation method based on the existing stacked penalized logistic regression (StaPLR) algorithm for multi-view learning. It performs imputation in a dimension-reduced space to address computational challenges inherent to the multi-view context. We compare the performance of the new imputation method with several existing imputation algorithms in simulated data sets. The results show that the new imputation method leads to competitive results at a much lower computational cost, and makes the use of advanced imputation algorithms such as missForest and predictive mean matching possible in settings where they would otherwise be computationally infeasible.

We present a simple and effective approach for posterior uncertainty quantification in deep operator networks (DeepONets); an emerging paradigm for supervised learning in function spaces. We adopt a frequentist approach based on randomized prior ensembles, and put forth an efficient vectorized implementation for fast parallel inference on accelerated hardware. Through a collection of representative examples in computational mechanics and climate modeling, we show that the merits of the proposed approach are fourfold. (1) It can provide more robust and accurate predictions when compared against deterministic DeepONets. (2) It shows great capability in providing reliable uncertainty estimates on scarce data-sets with multi-scale function pairs. (3) It can effectively detect out-of-distribution and adversarial examples. (4) It can seamlessly quantify uncertainty due to model bias, as well as noise corruption in the data. Finally, we provide an optimized JAX library called {\em UQDeepONet} that can accommodate large model architectures, large ensemble sizes, as well as large data-sets with excellent parallel performance on accelerated hardware, thereby enabling uncertainty quantification for DeepONets in realistic large-scale applications.

The last decade has seen the rise of Adversarial Machine Learning (AML). This discipline studies how to manipulate data to fool inference engines, and how to protect those systems against such manipulation attacks. Extensive work on attacks against regression and classification systems is available, while little attention has been paid to attacks against time series forecasting systems. In this paper, we propose a decision analysis based attacking strategy that could be utilized against Bayesian forecasting dynamic models.

The wide and rapid adoption of deep learning by practitioners brought unintended consequences in many situations such as in the infamous case of Google Photos' racist image recognition algorithm; thus, necessitated the utilization of the quantified uncertainty for each prediction. There have been recent efforts towards quantifying uncertainty in conventional deep learning methods (e.g., dropout as Bayesian approximation); however, their optimal use in decision making is often overlooked and understudied. In this study, we propose a mixed-integer programming framework for classification with reject option (also known as selective classification), that investigates and combines model uncertainty and predictive mean to identify optimal classification and rejection regions. Our results indicate superior performance of our framework both in non-rejected accuracy and rejection quality on several publicly available datasets. Moreover, we extend our framework to cost-sensitive settings and show that our approach outperforms industry standard methods significantly for online fraud management in real-world settings.

End-to-end trained neural networks (NNs) are a compelling approach to autonomous vehicle control because of their ability to learn complex tasks without manual engineering of rule-based decisions. However, challenging road conditions, ambiguous navigation situations, and safety considerations require reliable uncertainty estimation for the eventual adoption of full-scale autonomous vehicles. Bayesian deep learning approaches provide a way to estimate uncertainty by approximating the posterior distribution of weights given a set of training data. Dropout training in deep NNs approximates Bayesian inference in a deep Gaussian process and can thus be used to estimate model uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian NN for end-to-end control that estimates uncertainty by exploiting feature map correlation during training. This approach achieves improved model fits, as well as tighter uncertainty estimates, than traditional element-wise dropout. We evaluate our algorithms on a challenging dataset collected over many different road types, times of day, and weather conditions, and demonstrate how uncertainties can be used in conjunction with a human controller in a parallel autonomous setting.

Since, MICE assumes missing at random values. Let's seed missing values in our data set using prodNA function. You can access this function by installing missForest package.

We propose a class of intrinsic Gaussian processes (in-GPs) for interpolation, regression and classification on manifolds with a primary focus on complex constrained domains or irregular shaped spaces arising as subsets or submanifolds of R, R2, R3 and beyond. For example, in-GPs can accommodate spatial domains arising as complex subsets of Euclidean space. in-GPs respect the potentially complex boundary or interior conditions as well as the intrinsic geometry of the spaces. The key novelty of the proposed approach is to utilise the relationship between heat kernels and the transition density of Brownian motion on manifolds for constructing and approximating valid and computationally feasible covariance kernels. This enables in-GPs to be practically applied in great generality, while existing approaches for smoothing on constrained domains are limited to simple special cases. The broad utilities of the in-GP approach is illustrated through simulation studies and data examples.